Blatant Reality

According to the Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor survey, Mike Huckabee is leading Romney in Michigan by one point. They have a weird URL for this site that wont allow me to link to it so I reprinted the entire article here. You can get to where this article is by first going to their News Releases here and clicking on the one named “Presidential Primary Survey: GOP in Three-way Race, Clinton leads Democrat Field.”

LANSING, Mich. — With the New Hampshire Primary and Iowa Caucus now complete, the next stop on the road to the White House is the Michigan January 15 Presidential Primary. With the nation’s eyes now on the Great Lake state, a new survey of Michigan Presidential Primary voters shows Mike Huckabee with a one-point lead in the GOP race, and a tenuous Hillary Clinton lead over the second place finisher, “Uncommitted.”

 

According to the latest Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor survey, the GOP contest in Michigan is now shaping up as a battle between Mike Huckabee (at 23 percent), Mitt Romney (at 22 percent) and John McCain (at 18 percent). Further back in fourth place, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani continues to drop (eight percent).

 

Trailing are Fred Thompson (at 4 percent), and Ron Paul (at 3 percent). Uncommitted scored 13 percent of the vote. Rounding out the field were Duncan Hunter (at one percent), Tom Tancredo (at less than one percent) and Sam Brownback (at zero percent) – thirteen percent favored “Uncommitted” while seven percent were “unsure.”

 

“The Republican primary in Michigan is coming down to a three-way scrum between Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and John McCain” said Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO of The Rossman Group. “The real loser is Rudy Giuliani, who didn’t even get to double digits here this time around. Proving that being first out of the gate doesn’t get you to the finish line.”

 

Meanwhile, among a Democratic field that does not include Barack Obama or John Edwards, Hillary Clinton (at 48 percent) is now looking over her shoulder at the threesome of “Uncommitted” (at 28 percent), “unsure” (at 11 percent) and “other” (at 10 percent).

 

The other Democrats – Dennis Kucinich (at three percent), Christopher Dodd (at one percent) and Mike Gravel (at one percent) – lag considerably behind.

 

“I think the big stories shaping up in Michigan are Huckabee’s leap to the top of the GOP field, and general dissatisfaction among Democratic Primary voters with the absence of marquis candidates on the ballot,” said John T. Reurink, president of Michigan Information & Research Service Inc. (MIRS newsletter).”

 

The statewide survey was conducted by Denno-Noor Research in partnership with The Rossman Group and Michigan Information & Research Services, Michigan’s leading daily legislative and state government newsletter. The Rossman Group was recently named Lansing’s Most Effective Public Relations Firm by a survey of political insiders, and MIRS and was recently voted the preferred newsletter of Lansing’s political insiders.

 

“I think it’s significant that the uncommitted and undecided vote among Republicans is only 21 percent, while forty nine percent of the Democratic vote is uncommitted, unsure or looking for another candidate,” said Denno-Noor President Dennis Denno.”

 

“Hillary’s numbers clearly reflect the concern Democrats have with their own primary field. They’re so conflicted that not even half of them are sure they’re going to vote for her – and she’s the only serious contender on the ballot,” added Rossman-McKinney. “I know an awful lot of men who are comfortable with a failure to commit but this is beyond the pale!”

Go Huckabee!

Many people are predicting the Romney will have to win Michigan in order to stay viable in this presidential race. Another loss would give the perception that he doesn’t have the chance to win. A quote from a Reuters.com article sums up what might happen to the Romney campaign:

“His campaign his hemorrhaging bad and losing Michigan would be the final nail in the coffin,” said Thomas Whalen, a professor of politics at Boston University. “I don’t think he wants to spend his entire fortune on a national campaign”.

 

Just months ago he was been widely expected to win New Hampshire, where he maintains a summer home. He toiled hard there, holding about 250 events with voters, flooding airwaves with more than 10 television ads a day and vastly outspending his rivals.

 

“He’s trying to get the other donors to contribute now but they will abandon him very easy — I think they are already abandoning him. He has to show them a good showing in Michigan,” he said.

With his father known as a former governor of Michigan, Romney should at least be known throughout the state. However, there is a strong possibility for McCain and Huckabee to pick up a lot of voters in the state. Since the DNC has stripped Michigan of its 156 delegates, many independent voters may turn out to the Republican primary instead. This would surely help McCain as it seemed to have helped him in New Hampshire. This would be reminiscent of McCain’s support there back in the 2000 election.

But McCain probably can appeal to the same pool of voters who gave him a win in Michigan’s 2000 primary and are unlikely to go for Romney: independents and Democrats who admire his record as a Vietnam pilot and prisoner of war and respond to his fiscal conservatism. McCain also is likely to do better among GOP voters than he did here in 2000, when George W. Bush was the establishment favorite.

Huckabee also has the chance of getting the vote of the evangelicals and conservative Christians in Michigan even though he doesn’t have a formal campaign there. However, Huckabee is going to be campaigning in Michigan and has launched a TV ad there.

Romney is going to have to work quickly to repair his tarnished image before the primary in this state if he wishes to have a chance to win.

Huckabee will be swinging through South Carolina tomorrow for a one day tour before Thursday’s debate in Myrtle Beach. Here is what the schedule is going to be:

12:30 PM – Mike Huckabee Rally at the Ballroom of the Spartanburg Marriott, located at 209 N. Church Street in Spartanburg, SC. (Contact: Alice Stewart, 501-658-2422 or Kassie Dulin, 214-542-4334)

 

3:30 PM – Stops by the Carolina Crisis Pregnancy Center, located at 103 Metro Drive in Spartanburg, SC. (Contact: Alice Stewart, 501-658-2422 or Kassie Dulin, 214-542-4334)

 

7:00 PM – Mike Huckabee Rally and Jam Session at the Younts Conference Center on the campus of Furman University, located at 3300 Poinsett Highway in Greenville, SC. (Contact: Alice Stewart, 501-658-2422 or Kassie Dulin, 214-542-4334)

Visit the website to see what you can do to help out and show your support.

Right Wing News posted today the Top Conservatives of 2007 and, surprisingly, Mike Huckabee made the list.

Mike Huckabee: At the beginning of the year, he was practically an unknown nationally and by the end of the year, he was in the hunt for the presidency. He may or may not win the nomination, but he has vaulted to prominence, he probably isn’t going away, and you can be sure other conservatives will adopt his rhetoric on a number of different issues.

Its quite interesting to see Huckabee put on the list with other big conservative names like Rush Limbaugh. Don’t hear me wrong, I totally agree that he should be on this list, but Huckabee is the only presidential hopeful on it which I find interesting.

As of today, Huckabee is leading in the national polls according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll.

On the Republican side, Gallup says Iowa caucuses winner Mike Huckabee has jumped into a national lead for the first time. The rundown: Huckabee, 25%; Rudy Giuliani, 20%; Sen. John McCain, 19%; Fred Thompson, 12%; Mitt Romney, 9%; and Rep. Ron Paul, 4%.

Also, Huckabee is seen as the second most electable republican candidate trailing McCain by only four percent according to a Rasmussen poll.

Among Republican voters, 68% believe that McCain would be at least somewhat likely to win in November if he is nominated. Sixty-four percent (64%) say the same about Huckabee and 57% believe Giuliani would have a chance. These numbers reflect a significant change from earlier in the year when Giuliani was consistently seen as the most electable candidate.

Even though this is good news for Huckabee, the fact remains that when compared with the democratic candidates, Obama crushes everyone with his 66% compared to Huckabee’s 46%. Huckabee is going to have a lot of work to do in the coming months if he is going to have a chance to beat the democratic candidate come November.

Huckabee’s campaign blog posted what kind of voters supported Huckabee in the Iowa caucus. Here are some examples:

• Won voters most concerned with illegal immigration, the economy and the war in Iraq
• Won conservative and somewhat conservative voters
• Won voters who strongly or somewhat support the Bush administration

Well, the winners of last night’s caucus in Iowa are Huckabee and Obama and, as you know, the blogs are filled with commentary on what this means. I’m going to spare you a long commentary from me and say this: Huckabee won because he can connect with ordinary people. He seems just like an ordinary guy who you can relate to and thats why he has such a broad support base. Now, with that in mind, its going to be interesting to see if this win affects him in New Hampshire. Now here is what others are saying:

Positive:

Andrew Sullivan

Negative:

VodkaPundit

Bill Bradley is covering the Iowa caucus for Pajamas Media and will be updating his post as the day drags on. In his post, he pointed out the both “leading” candidates, Huckabee and Hillary, were on late night TV shows however Huckabee seemed to make a much better impression.

Huckabee showed that he’s not one of those scary preachers. “I’m just trying to keep from going back to nowhere as fast as I can,” he told Leno. “People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with rather than the guy that laid them off. I think that’s part of what’s going on right now.”

 

He talked up his low-income background, his parents scrimping to get him a $99 guitar when he was a boy. “Do you think you’re good enough to sit in with our band later?” Leno asked him. Huckabee: “No, but I’d like to do it anyway.” Of course, he did, playing bass guitar with the Tonight Show band. he wasn’t bad.

Huckabee’s chat with Leno continued to highlight his human side compared to Hillary’s taped opening joke for Letterman. We shall see how both of these “appearances” may have helped or hindered these candidates today.

Don’t know where you are supposed to be to caucus? Huckabee’s blog has a post today where you can look up exactly where you need to be. One important thing to remember:

Please note: your caucus location may differ from your regular voting location.

So be sure to look up where you need to be. GO HUCKABEE!

Huckabee’s campaign has met their 4th quarter goal of $5 million with hours to spare. Go here to his homepage to see exactly how much money has been raised.