WTN: Can alternatives, like algae, scale up to replace oil?
After the recent BP oil rig disaster, many are looking for alternatives that don’t involve all the hazards that are associated with the petroleum industry. However, the question remains whether or not these alternatives, like algae, can scale up to commercial size to make a significant dent in petroleum use. The answer is a mixed one; yes, they can be scaled up but it is going to take some time before they make a significant impact.
“We’ve had a lot of industries tell us: Don’t show tell us you have the perfect molecule. Don’t tell us you can produce it for $1.05 a gallon. Show us you can do it at scale,” said Jonathan Wolfson, CEO of Solazyme, a San Francisco area company that has developed a system that uses algae to convert cellulosic materials such as wood and crop waste into “in spec” jet fuel.
“Each technology faces specific challenges to commercialization – and we have a long way to go to get to fuel scale.”
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Solazyme’s technology takes wood and crop waste that has been processed to extract its sugars, which are then fed to algae microbes. The microbes produce oil nearly identical to jet fuel, which Wolfson called a “drop-in” fuel because it can be used by cars and trucks that won’t have to be modified.
While the technology can produce large volumes of fuel, Solazyme does not yet have a pilot plant. And even at full scale, a microbial fuel factory would not produce the amount of fuel in a year what a commercial petroleum refinery would produce in a day.
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The technologies are there. What’s needed is a consistent government policy that allows investors to put money in the best ideas and to stick with them as they scale up. Make no mistake: Oil will be with us for a long time. Without investment and policies that will bring biofuels production up to scale, the migration from oil will take that much longer.
The author points to Brazil switching to ethanol from sugarcane as an example of how a country can switch from petroleum. However, I would caution comparing the US to Brazil since our transportation consumption is much larger than theirs. If I remember correctly, in recent years, Brazil has had to rely more and more on petroleum since their population and the number of people with cars has been growing (I could be wrong).
Overall, the author is right. The technologies to lessen our dependence on oil are there, but its just going to take some time before they can be commercialized. As he hinted at, the government can help this process by finding a policy and sticking with it. Uncertainty in the marketplace can kill investments pretty quick. Now this doesn’t mean that the government has to pick one alternative over the other or that it has to offer some kind of incentives; all this means that whatever path the government chooses, it stays on that path so that private investors can have an idea of what the future may hold.
