Obama’s Crumbling Support
Obama’s popularity may still be pretty high but his issue support is quickly dropping. In fact, after just a few short months, the American public is beginning to trust Republicans more on some key issues like the economy and soon on healthcare if the polling trends continue.
So what does it mean if the president enjoys personal popularity but declining support on particular issues? Well, if things continue on these trends, Democrats will at the very least lose seats in the 2010 midterm election.
In an article that looks at these polling trends, the author argues that Obama will face a tough election in 2012 and makes an interesting contrast to the Clinton presidency.
Interestingly, Obama’s polling is now the exact opposite of President Clinton’s in the days after Monica Lewinsky. Back then, the president’s approval for handling specific issues was his forte, while his job approval remained high but his personal favorability lagged 20 points behind. Ultimately, it is a politician’s performance on specific issues that determines his electability. Personal favorability withers in the face of issue differences. Obama is about to find out that you cannot rely on image to bolster your presidency when the underlying issues are crumbling.
All this data suggests that Obama might run out of steam just as he gets to his healthcare agenda. As unemployment mounts, month after month, and Obama’s claims of job creation (or savings) ring hollow, it is possible that he will not have the heft to pass his radical restructuring of the healthcare system. The automaton Democratic majority may pass it anyway, but it will be a one-way ticket to oblivion if they do.
Read the rest of the article.
In other news, only 26% of Americans feel the economy is improving.