In the past couple of months, we have seen a lot of turmoil and shifts of influence in the 2008 presidential race. The Republican side has been much more of a toss up than the Democractic side, with five to possibly six major contenders entering into the primaries. On the Democratic side, the race seems to be only between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton with Edwards trailing them both.
Even after roughly a year of campaigning, the question still remains: Who is going to win the nomination from each side? Well, I’m not even going to pretend that I know, even though I have a few hunches on who it will be. However, I would like to take the time to present some often overlooked information that can be used to predict the public opinion (or at least popularity) of each candidate.
To do this analysis, I will be using two different internet tools: Google Trends (analyzes searches and news reference frequency) and Alexa.com (estimates the percentage of internet users that visit a particular site).
First, lets look at the Democratic candidates. Here is the Google Trends chart of the past year.

Red: Hillary Clinton Light Blue: Barack Obama Yellow: John Edwards
By now, you can see that judging by the search results, its almost a dead heat between Clinton and Obama. So that isn’t much help in judging who might win. Now, lets look at each candidate’s “reach” according to Alexa.com.

Now, this chart shows that Barack Obama has a lot more internet users visiting his site, more than Clinton and Edwards combined. If we went by this, Barack Obama would seem to be the the peoples’ pick for the Democratic candidate.
Now lets take a look at the Republican’s side. Here is the Google Trends chart of the searches for the top Republican candidates:

Red: Mike Huckabee Light Blue: Mitt Romney Yellow: Rudy Giuliani Green: John McCain Dark Blue: Fred Thompson
Now, by this chart, it would seem that it is a close race between Huckabee and Romney. Now, since this is just a chart of the number of searches for their names, it only really judges their popularity. If all the press coverage about Huckabee and Romney dies down, their search popularity might follow suit.
Now lets look at the Alexa.com chart for these five candidates.

Now this chart shows a gigantic surge in the percentage of internet users going to Huckabee’s official campaign website. If we go by this chart, it would seem that Huckabee would be the winner of the Republican nomination.
Now, something that has me worried is the popularity of Ron Paul on the internet. Here is the Google Trends chart including Ron Paul in place of John McCain.

Red: Mike Huckabee Light Blue: Mitt Romney Yellow: Rudy Giuliani Green: Ron Paul Dark Blue: Fred Thompson
Ron Paul puts all of the candidates to shame according to the amount of searches for him on the internet. This high search volume is even happening when his news reference volume is the lowest of any candidate!
Here is his Alexa.com chart that includes Ron Paul and excludes John McCain:

The percentage of internet users that go to his website is outrageously larger than any of the other Republican candidates. If we went by Ron Paul would easily be the Republican’s presidential candidate.
Even when you compare Ron Paul’s site with the Clinton and Obama, he comes out ahead. Here is Alexa.com’s chart:

Now, I’m not even going to pretend I know what this may mean for the primaries but it is something that I feel people should be paying more attention to.
Overall, if we forget the Ron Paul factor and nothing big happens within the next two to three weeks, the primary race seems to be between Clinton and Obama (no surprise there) and between Huckabee and Romney if we go by this internet data. It will be interesting to see how well this theory holds up come January.